Japan is home to Asia-Pacific’s largest Twitter population, according to eMarketer’s latest estimates of social network usage around the world. This year, 23.9 million people in Japan will use Twitter at least monthly—which translates to about 29% of the total Twitter market in the region.
By 2019, the end of eMarketer’s forecast period, Japan’s Twitter population will reach 28.4 million, with growth dropping to single-digit rates by 2016. That slowing growth means that in 2018, India’s Twitter population will be larger. By 2019, India will boast 29% of the Asia-Pacific Twitter user base, while Japan claims another 23.9% of the market.
Twitter has relatively high penetration among social network users in Japan, at 46.1% this year. That figure will surpass the halfway mark in 2017, when more than a quarter of all internet users in Japan will also be Twitter users. That’s the highest penetration of any country in the world. This year, the UK comes in second place, with 37.5% of social network users in the country using Twitter—significantly below Japan’s penetration. Japan is the only country in the world where more than half of the social population will use Twitter at any point in our forecast period.
In India, meanwhile, penetration is much lower, at just 13.7% of social network users—and that figure will actually drop during the forecast period, as internet users in India pick up social networking at a faster rate than they’re expected to adopt Twitter specifically.
That doesn’t mean Twitter isn’t growing rapidly in India—double-digit rates are expected through at least 2019. But even by the end of our forecast period, less than 3% of the total population of India will be on Twitter.
eMarketer bases all of its forecasts on a multipronged approach that focuses on both worldwide and local trends in the economy, technology and population, along with company-, product-, country- and demographic-specific trends, and trends in specific consumer behaviors. We analyze quantitative and qualitative data from a variety of research firms, government agencies, media outlets and company reports, weighting each piece of information based on methodology and soundness.
In addition, every element of each eMarketer forecast fits within the larger matrix of all its forecasts, with the same assumptions and general framework used to project figures in a wide variety of areas. Regular re-evaluation of each forecast means those assumptions and framework are constantly updated to reflect new market developments and other trends.