Slower growth this year will bring the total spent to $516.95 billion, which includes spending on digital (including mobile), directories, magazines, newspapers, outdoor ads, radio and TV.
2014 will once again see a jump in growth closer to 5%, due in part to expected outlays around the FIFA World Cup that year in Brazil. By 2017, spending will reach $616.65 billion.
The fastest growth in spending will come from emerging markets in Central and Eastern Europe, and Latin America, where regional growth this year will reach 8% and 7.5%, respectively—significantly higher than the worldwide average. Spending growth is also projected to come in above average this year in the Middle East and Africa, at 6.9%, and North America, including the US, at 3.4%.
Western Europe—where total media ad spending declined slightly in 2012—will continue dragging down growth worldwide this year, even as the region moves back into positive territory; continued economic woes will hold back spending in many countries.
Meanwhile, two countries—Argentina and Japan—will experience significant drop-offs in spending levels in terms of real dollars, due to volatile currency fluctuations. The devaluation of the Argentine peso and the yen mean that, based on current exchange rates, real spending will be down in these countries even as they experience nominal growth in local currencies.
The highest-spending regions are not the same as the fastest-growing, though. North America remains on top, and will hold that spot throughout the forecast period, with $184.4 billion in total media ad spending expected for this year. Nearly $171 billion of that will come from the US. Asia-Pacific and Western Europe, the second- and third-largest spenders by region, are far ahead of fourth-place Latin America.
In a country-by-country comparison, the US comes out on top, followed by China, where eMarketer expects advertisers to spend $45 billion this year, and Japan, at $40.7 billion. This year spending in Japan will drop below Chinese spending levels, again due to the devaluation of the yen.
On a per-person basis, ad spending will be highest this year in Norway, where advertisers will spend $581.59 to reach each consumer in the country. Spending will be nearly as high in the US, at $539.40 per person, and Australia, at $534.95 per person.
eMarketer bases its estimates of total media ad spending around the world on the analysis of various elements related to the ad spending market, including macro-level economic conditions; historical trends of the advertising market; estimates from other research firms; and consumer media consumption trends.